[Influenza pandemic deaths in Germany from 1918 to 2009. Estimates based on literature and own calculations].
Identifieur interne : 000078 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000077; suivant : 000079[Influenza pandemic deaths in Germany from 1918 to 2009. Estimates based on literature and own calculations].
Auteurs : Udo Buchholz [Allemagne] ; Silke Buda [Allemagne] ; Annicka Reu [Allemagne] ; Walter Haas [Allemagne] ; Helmut Uphoff [Allemagne]Source :
- Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz [ 1437-1588 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Allemagne (épidémiologie), Analyse de survie (MeSH), Appréciation des risques (MeSH), Enfant (MeSH), Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH), Femelle (MeSH), Grippe humaine (mortalité), Humains (MeSH), Jeune adulte (MeSH), Modèles statistiques (MeSH), Mortalité (tendances), Mâle (MeSH), Nourrisson (MeSH), Nouveau-né (MeSH), Pandémie de grippe de 1918-1919 (mortalité), Pandémies (statistiques et données numériques), Prévalence (MeSH), Simulation numérique (MeSH), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH).
- MESH :
- mortalité : Grippe humaine, Pandémie de grippe de 1918-1919.
- statistiques et données numériques : Pandémies.
- tendances : Mortalité.
- épidémiologie : Allemagne.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Analyse de survie, Appréciation des risques, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles statistiques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Prévalence, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Child (MeSH), Child, Preschool (MeSH), Computer Simulation (MeSH), Female (MeSH), Germany (epidemiology), Humans (MeSH), Infant (MeSH), Infant, Newborn (MeSH), Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 (mortality), Influenza, Human (mortality), Male (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Models, Statistical (MeSH), Mortality (trends), Pandemics (statistics & numerical data), Prevalence (MeSH), Risk Assessment (MeSH), Survival Analysis (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Germany.
- mortality : Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919, Influenza, Human.
- statistics & numerical data : Pandemics.
- trends : Mortality.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Prevalence, Risk Assessment, Survival Analysis, Young Adult.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
Estimation of the number of deaths as a consequence of the influenza pandemics in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries (i.e. 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1970 and 2009) is a challenge worldwide and also in Germany. After conducting a systematic literature search complemented by our own calculations, values and estimates for all four pandemics were collated and evaluated.
METHOD
A systematic literature search including the terms death, mortality, pandemic, epidemic, Germany, 1918, 1957, 1968, 2009 was performed. Hits were reviewed by title and abstract and selected for possible relevance. We derived our own estimates using excess mortality calculations, which estimate the mortality exceeding that to be expected. All identified values were evaluated by methodology and quality of the database. Numbers of pandemic deaths were used to calculate case fatality rates and were compared with global values provided by the World Health Organization.
RESULTS
For the pandemic 1918-1919 we identified 5 relevant publications, 3 for the pandemics 1957-1958 and 1968-1970 and 3 for 2009. For all four pandemics the most plausible estimations were based on time series analyses, taken either from the literature or from our own calculations based on monthly or weekly all cause death statistics. For the four pandemics these estimates were in chronological order 426,600 (1918-1919), 29,100 (1957-1958), 46,900 (1968-1970) and 350 (2009) excess pandemic-related deaths. This translates to an excess mortality ranging between 691 per 100,000 (0.69 % in 1918-1919) and 0.43 per 100,000 (0.00043 % in 2009). Case fatality rates showed good agreement with global estimates.
CONCLUSION
We have proposed plausible estimates of pandemic-related excess number of deaths for the last four pandemics as well as excess mortality in Germany. The heterogeneity among pandemics is large with a variation factor of more than 1000. Possible explanations include characteristics of the virus or host (immunity), social conditions, status of the healthcare system and medical advances.
DOI: 10.1007/s00103-016-2324-9
PubMed: 26984565
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Estimates based on literature and own calculations].</title><author><name sortKey="Buchholz, Udo" sort="Buchholz, Udo" uniqKey="Buchholz U" first="Udo" last="Buchholz">Udo Buchholz</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin, Deutschland. buchholzu@rki.de.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Buda, Silke" sort="Buda, Silke" uniqKey="Buda S" first="Silke" last="Buda">Silke Buda</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin, Deutschland.</nlm:affiliation><country 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(MeSH)</term><term>Models, Statistical (MeSH)</term><term>Mortality (trends)</term><term>Pandemics (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Prevalence (MeSH)</term><term>Risk Assessment (MeSH)</term><term>Survival Analysis (MeSH)</term><term>Young Adult (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term><term>Adulte (MeSH)</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH)</term><term>Allemagne (épidémiologie)</term><term>Analyse de survie (MeSH)</term><term>Appréciation des risques (MeSH)</term><term>Enfant (MeSH)</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH)</term><term>Femelle (MeSH)</term><term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Jeune adulte (MeSH)</term><term>Modèles statistiques (MeSH)</term><term>Mortalité (tendances)</term><term>Mâle (MeSH)</term><term>Nourrisson (MeSH)</term><term>Nouveau-né (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémie de grippe de 1918-1919 (mortalité)</term><term>Pandémies (statistiques et données 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qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Allemagne</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Prevalence</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Survival Analysis</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Analyse de survie</term><term>Appréciation des risques</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Prévalence</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE</b></p><p>Estimation of the number of deaths as a consequence of the influenza pandemics in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries (i.e. 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1970 and 2009) is a challenge worldwide and also in Germany. After conducting a systematic literature search complemented by our own calculations, values and estimates for all four pandemics were collated and evaluated.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHOD</b></p><p>A systematic literature search including the terms death, mortality, pandemic, epidemic, Germany, 1918, 1957, 1968, 2009 was performed. Hits were reviewed by title and abstract and selected for possible relevance. We derived our own estimates using excess mortality calculations, which estimate the mortality exceeding that to be expected. All identified values were evaluated by methodology and quality of the database. Numbers of pandemic deaths were used to calculate case fatality rates and were compared with global values provided by the World Health Organization.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>For the pandemic 1918-1919 we identified 5 relevant publications, 3 for the pandemics 1957-1958 and 1968-1970 and 3 for 2009. For all four pandemics the most plausible estimations were based on time series analyses, taken either from the literature or from our own calculations based on monthly or weekly all cause death statistics. For the four pandemics these estimates were in chronological order 426,600 (1918-1919), 29,100 (1957-1958), 46,900 (1968-1970) and 350 (2009) excess pandemic-related deaths. This translates to an excess mortality ranging between 691 per 100,000 (0.69 % in 1918-1919) and 0.43 per 100,000 (0.00043 % in 2009). Case fatality rates showed good agreement with global estimates.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>We have proposed plausible estimates of pandemic-related excess number of deaths for the last four pandemics as well as excess mortality in Germany. The heterogeneity among pandemics is large with a variation factor of more than 1000. Possible explanations include characteristics of the virus or host (immunity), social conditions, status of the healthcare system and medical advances.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26984565</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2017</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>17</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>17</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1437-1588</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>59</Volume><Issue>4</Issue><PubDate><Year>2016</Year><Month>Apr</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>[Influenza pandemic deaths in Germany from 1918 to 2009. Estimates based on literature and own calculations].</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>523-36</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1007/s00103-016-2324-9</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">Estimation of the number of deaths as a consequence of the influenza pandemics in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries (i.e. 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1970 and 2009) is a challenge worldwide and also in Germany. After conducting a systematic literature search complemented by our own calculations, values and estimates for all four pandemics were collated and evaluated.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHOD" NlmCategory="METHODS">A systematic literature search including the terms death, mortality, pandemic, epidemic, Germany, 1918, 1957, 1968, 2009 was performed. Hits were reviewed by title and abstract and selected for possible relevance. We derived our own estimates using excess mortality calculations, which estimate the mortality exceeding that to be expected. All identified values were evaluated by methodology and quality of the database. Numbers of pandemic deaths were used to calculate case fatality rates and were compared with global values provided by the World Health Organization.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">For the pandemic 1918-1919 we identified 5 relevant publications, 3 for the pandemics 1957-1958 and 1968-1970 and 3 for 2009. For all four pandemics the most plausible estimations were based on time series analyses, taken either from the literature or from our own calculations based on monthly or weekly all cause death statistics. For the four pandemics these estimates were in chronological order 426,600 (1918-1919), 29,100 (1957-1958), 46,900 (1968-1970) and 350 (2009) excess pandemic-related deaths. This translates to an excess mortality ranging between 691 per 100,000 (0.69 % in 1918-1919) and 0.43 per 100,000 (0.00043 % in 2009). Case fatality rates showed good agreement with global estimates.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">We have proposed plausible estimates of pandemic-related excess number of deaths for the last four pandemics as well as excess mortality in Germany. The heterogeneity among pandemics is large with a variation factor of more than 1000. Possible explanations include characteristics of the virus or host (immunity), social conditions, status of the healthcare system and medical advances.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Buchholz</LastName><ForeName>Udo</ForeName><Initials>U</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin, Deutschland. buchholzu@rki.de.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Buda</LastName><ForeName>Silke</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin, Deutschland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Reuß</LastName><ForeName>Annicka</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin, Deutschland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Haas</LastName><ForeName>Walter</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin, Deutschland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Uphoff</LastName><ForeName>Helmut</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Hessisches Landesuntersuchungs- und Prüfungsamt im Gesundheitswesen, Dillenburg, Deutschland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>ger</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D017418">Meta-Analysis</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016454">Review</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><VernacularTitle>Todesfälle durch Influenzapandemien in Deutschland 1918 bis 2009. Schätzwerte auf Basis der Literatur und ergänzende eigene Berechnungen.</VernacularTitle></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Germany</Country><MedlineTA>Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101181368</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1436-9990</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000369" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged, 80 and over</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005858" MajorTopicYN="N">Germany</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007223" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007231" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant, Newborn</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D064149" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009026" MajorTopicYN="N">Mortality</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000639" MajorTopicYN="Y">trends</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="Y">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015995" MajorTopicYN="N">Prevalence</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018570" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk Assessment</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016019" MajorTopicYN="N">Survival Analysis</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Excess mortality estimation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Grippe</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mortality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemic</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2016</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>18</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2016</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>18</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2017</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>18</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26984565</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1007/s00103-016-2324-9</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">10.1007/s00103-016-2324-9</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li></country><region><li>Berlin</li></region><settlement><li>Berlin</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Berlin"><name sortKey="Buchholz, Udo" sort="Buchholz, Udo" uniqKey="Buchholz U" first="Udo" last="Buchholz">Udo Buchholz</name></region><name sortKey="Buda, Silke" sort="Buda, Silke" uniqKey="Buda S" first="Silke" last="Buda">Silke Buda</name><name sortKey="Haas, Walter" sort="Haas, Walter" uniqKey="Haas W" first="Walter" last="Haas">Walter Haas</name><name sortKey="Reu, Annicka" sort="Reu, Annicka" uniqKey="Reu A" first="Annicka" last="Reu">Annicka Reu</name><name sortKey="Uphoff, Helmut" sort="Uphoff, Helmut" uniqKey="Uphoff H" first="Helmut" last="Uphoff">Helmut Uphoff</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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